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Governments of the European Union are engaged in wargames which simulate and foresee a global food crisis. A mix of major factors including the Russia-Ukraine war and impact on grain supplies there, as well as weather events like El Niño and La Niña and their impact on Latin American soy output, and the anti-EU farmers' protests which have disrupted supermarket supply chains, have been cause for alarm, European officials say. Of course there's also the example of how drastically a pandemic can interfere with supply chains. Panic buying was a trend and constant fear within the early months of the coronavirus crisis.
Bloomberg details of a conference held in Brussels last month that envisioned a 2024 to 2025 food shortage in Europe: "...over two days in central Brussels last month, some 60 European Union and government officials, food security experts, industry representatives and a few journalists gathered to confront the possibility of something barely on the radar a few years ago: a full-blown food crisis."
Piotr Magnuszewski, a systems modeler and game designer who helped put the conference gaming scenario together told participants to "Expect a level of chaos" and cautioned, "You may be confused at times and not have enough information."
As the report underscores, what's remarkable about this is the fact that a continent which stands out as among the best-fed regions in the world is now busy stress testing its food system.
Below are some of the scenarios put before participants in the wargaming event last month:
Harvest failures:
"And so, it’s 2025 and there are more harvest failures. They impact animal feed prices, which curbs livestock and fish production. Some ships carrying crops turn away from Europe to cater to higher bidders elsewhere."
Asia’s palm oil export limits are now reducing supplies of daily staples from margarine to bread. Allegations of corporate greed, disinformation and conspiracy theories are spreading."
Fertilizer crisis:
"The cost of fertilizers and energy needed to grow crops and keep glasshouses running soared in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine."
Unrest in the street as shortages hit locally:
"Things unravel further later in 2025. Thieves are looting supermarkets. Police struggle to contain riots spreading in cities. People in Germany can’t find fish and meat at grocery stores. Livestock farmers are going bankrupt."
Popular anger targets elites & corporations
"Meanwhile, the public’s focus shifts to profiteering by commodity traders. Small farms fall like dominos, while attacks on immigrants begin to become more widespread. Is the EU a sinking ship, someone asks in the video?"
for "solutions" - interestingly conference participants were told (or rather took it as an assumption) that populations would have to be weaned off meat. Let them eat bugs?
"Day two started with a mindfulness session before focusing on policy proposals and any conclusions," the Bloomberg journalist in attendance wrote. "There was little objection to the idea that diets need to shift toward healthier options and away from meat. Questions loomed over how best to manage food reserves and monitor the level of stockpiles."
Just who it is that will "manage" food reserves is an interesting, and possibly scary, scenario to imagine as well. Read the rest of the full report "Europe is Wargaming a Food Crisis" here.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/europe-alarmed-enough-begin-wargaming-food-crisis?s=09
Just who it is that will "manage" food reserves is an interesting, and possibly scary, scenario to imagine as well. Read the rest of the full report "Europe is Wargaming a Food Crisis" here.
If you're worried about ticks, put up an owl box.
The animal driving most Lyme disease in the eastern US is the white-footed mouse. Ticks that feed on them are far more likely to come away infected than ticks that feed on other animals. The bigger the local mouse population, the worse the next year's tick year.
A single barred owl pair raising chicks can take hundreds of rodents in a breeding season. Owls also don't carry Lyme. The bacterium can't survive their digestive tract, so an owl that eats an infected mouse is a dead end for the disease.
Researchers at the Cary Institute, the leading lab on Lyme ecology, have been explicit about this: "Landscapes that support predators have reduced Lyme disease risk."
One owl box on its own isn't going to fix a tick year. But a yard with owls, foxes, bobcats, and weasels in it has fewer mice, and a yard with fewer mice has fewer infected ticks.
If you have woods or fields nearby, a properly sized barn owl or screech owl box (different species, different ...
Dario has written that we need to “pace the frontier,” and Sam has agreed. People may be surprised by my response: go ahead.
You guys are the frontier. By any reasonable metric — market share, revenue growth, model capability — the two of you have a duopoly on frontier intelligence. You’ve also claimed the lead is widening because of recursive self-improvement.
I don’t see what you see in the lab. If the unreleased models are scary enough that you think you should slow down, I support your decision to be responsible.
But stop pretending you need anyone else’s permission. Stop pretending antitrust law has to be suspended so you can form a cartel. Stop pretending you need a regulatory approval process that supersedes product liability. Stop pretending METR is independent when it is intertwined with Anthropic’s investors and staff. Stop pretending you need those same evaluators to police competitors who aren’t even at the frontier.
Most of all, stop pretending the motivation to ...
Tonight, while you're asleep, several hundred million birds will fly over the United States in the dark. Most of them will pass directly over your house, a few thousand feet up.
More than 80% of North America's migratory birds travel at night. Warblers, thrushes, orioles, tanagers, sparrows. Birds that weigh as much as a few coins, crossing a continent between sunset and sunrise, navigating by stars and by the earth's magnetic field.
Mid-September through early October is the peak. On the biggest night ever recorded, radar picked up 1.25 billion birds aloft over the US at once.
And there's one thing standing in their way that you personally control: your lights.
Artificial light pulls night-migrating birds off course from as far as three miles away. Once they're drawn in, they circle the lit area, over and over, burning fuel they can't spare, until they either drop from exhaustion or hit glass. It's worst on low, foggy nights, when birds fly closer to the ground and the light bounces off the cloud ...
