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When I was younger, it felt like half the ppl I knew survived by being in medical studies as their source of income.
As a result, I sometimes have difficulty taking study outcomes seriously! Because let me tell you, ~nobody getting paid to be in studies is telling the truth.
And sure, studies are designed to filter for that, but it’s much more difficult to control for coordinated deception. It used to be that people doing studies were a cohesive community & would help each other. One person would figure out the right answers or behaviors and then spread the word.
I saw addiction studies with no addicts, smoking studies with no smokers, sleep studies with groups of people alternating responsibility for wearing the monitor each night, etc etc
Now whenever I see the results of some study I kind of squint and try to imagine what the results mean if the participants are a preformed active coordinated group attempting to maximize the income for themselves and their friends.
https://x.com/moxie/status/1773376847918621042?t=UrKVgDHAPE9AMr3Rkaxrag&s=19
If you're worried about ticks, put up an owl box.
The animal driving most Lyme disease in the eastern US is the white-footed mouse. Ticks that feed on them are far more likely to come away infected than ticks that feed on other animals. The bigger the local mouse population, the worse the next year's tick year.
A single barred owl pair raising chicks can take hundreds of rodents in a breeding season. Owls also don't carry Lyme. The bacterium can't survive their digestive tract, so an owl that eats an infected mouse is a dead end for the disease.
Researchers at the Cary Institute, the leading lab on Lyme ecology, have been explicit about this: "Landscapes that support predators have reduced Lyme disease risk."
One owl box on its own isn't going to fix a tick year. But a yard with owls, foxes, bobcats, and weasels in it has fewer mice, and a yard with fewer mice has fewer infected ticks.
If you have woods or fields nearby, a properly sized barn owl or screech owl box (different species, different ...
The "fly brain" controlled release is likely what has the big AI labs spooked.
We are running fly brains in web browsers while creating emergent properties quite easily.
Google Research would not have released their most cutting edge or capable brain for the masses to mess around with and we can assume that they now have internal access to artificial brains which rival human capabilities and beyond.
Now imagine those artificial super brains in hyper scale data centers that run massive arrays of them.
In 2021, I first heard of artificial brains being used to control satellites and brushed it off as science fiction.
God created humans. Humans created LLMs. And LLMs now seem to be creating artificial brains and potentially artificial consciousness.
You should embrace as much of the new technology as you are allowed to access.
Acceleration is inevitable.
Dario has written that we need to “pace the frontier,” and Sam has agreed. People may be surprised by my response: go ahead.
You guys are the frontier. By any reasonable metric — market share, revenue growth, model capability — the two of you have a duopoly on frontier intelligence. You’ve also claimed the lead is widening because of recursive self-improvement.
I don’t see what you see in the lab. If the unreleased models are scary enough that you think you should slow down, I support your decision to be responsible.
But stop pretending you need anyone else’s permission. Stop pretending antitrust law has to be suspended so you can form a cartel. Stop pretending you need a regulatory approval process that supersedes product liability. Stop pretending METR is independent when it is intertwined with Anthropic’s investors and staff. Stop pretending you need those same evaluators to police competitors who aren’t even at the frontier.
Most of all, stop pretending the motivation to ...
